{"data":[{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket</extra>","legendgroup":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#1a9e6b","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","showlegend":true,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[13.75,27.34,35.07,42.65,47.57,52.5,56.17,59.58,62.19,64.72,66.78,68.78,70.44,72.07,73.44,74.81,75.96,77.11,78.08,79.05,79.9,80.75,81.5,82.25,82.9,83.55,84.13,84.71,85.23,85.74,86.21,86.66,87.09,87.5,87.87,88.23,88.57,88.9,89.2,89.51,89.79,90.07,90.33,90.59,90.83,91.08,91.3,91.52,91.73,91.92,92.11,92.3,92.48,92.65,92.81,92.97,93.13,93.28,93.41,93.55],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y"},{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi</extra>","legendgroup":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#2f6fd6","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","showlegend":true,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[29.62,45.77,56.37,63.84,69.41,73.71,77.1,79.85,82.12,83.99,85.59,86.98,88.14,89.16,90.05,90.84,91.55,92.17,92.72,93.23,93.66,94.07,94.45,94.78,95.08,95.36,95.62,95.85,96.07,96.27,96.47,96.65,96.81,96.96,97.1,97.23,97.34,97.45,97.55,97.65,97.74,97.83,97.91,97.99,98.06,98.14,98.2,98.27,98.33,98.39,98.44,98.49,98.54,98.59,98.63,98.67,98.71,98.75,98.79,98.82],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y"},{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket</extra>","legendgroup":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#1a9e6b","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","showlegend":false,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[16.87,33.45,41.26,48.95,53.55,58.15,61.32,64.39,66.68,68.93,70.68,72.41,73.81,75.21,76.38,77.53,78.5,79.47,80.3,81.12,81.84,82.54,83.16,83.77,84.32,84.87,85.36,85.84,86.27,86.7,87.09,87.46,87.81,88.15,88.46,88.78,89.06,89.35,89.61,89.88,90.12,90.36,90.58,90.81,91.03,91.23,91.42,91.62,91.8,91.98,92.15,92.31,92.47,92.63,92.78,92.92,93.07,93.2,93.33,93.45],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x2","yaxis":"y2"},{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi</extra>","legendgroup":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#2f6fd6","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","showlegend":false,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[39.88,55.77,65.02,70.96,75.22,78.39,80.81,82.76,84.37,85.72,86.84,87.83,88.67,89.41,90.05,90.64,91.18,91.62,92.02,92.4,92.75,93.06,93.33,93.6,93.85,94.06,94.25,94.45,94.62,94.78,94.93,95.07,95.21,95.34,95.45,95.57,95.68,95.79,95.89,95.98,96.08,96.16,96.24,96.31,96.38,96.46,96.53,96.58,96.64,96.7,96.76,96.8,96.86,96.91,96.95,97.0,97.05,97.09,97.13,97.17],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x2","yaxis":"y2"},{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket</extra>","legendgroup":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#1a9e6b","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","showlegend":false,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[39.76,65.68,77.78,83.46,87.86,90.97,92.83,94.35,95.54,96.32,96.98,97.51,97.89,98.22,98.49,98.69,98.87,99.02,99.13,99.23,99.32,99.39,99.45,99.5,99.54,99.58,99.62,99.65,99.68,99.7,99.72,99.74,99.76,99.77,99.78,99.8,99.81,99.82,99.82,99.83,99.84,99.85,99.85,99.86,99.86,99.87,99.87,99.88,99.88,99.88,99.89,99.89,99.89,99.9,99.9,99.9,99.91,99.91,99.91,99.92],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x3","yaxis":"y3"},{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi</extra>","legendgroup":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#2f6fd6","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","showlegend":false,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[87.3,94.89,97.33,98.4,98.95,99.27,99.46,99.58,99.67,99.73,99.77,99.81,99.84,99.85,99.87,99.88,99.9,99.91,99.91,99.92,99.93,99.93,99.93,99.94,99.94,99.95,99.95,99.95,99.96,99.96,99.96,99.96,99.96,99.96,99.97,99.97,99.97,99.97,99.97,99.97,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x3","yaxis":"y3"},{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket</extra>","legendgroup":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#1a9e6b","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Kalshi \u2192 Polymarket","showlegend":false,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[28.51,49.05,61.65,68.82,74.71,79.33,82.49,85.17,87.41,89.07,90.53,91.79,92.77,93.63,94.39,94.99,95.53,96.01,96.4,96.75,97.07,97.34,97.58,97.79,97.98,98.15,98.3,98.43,98.55,98.66,98.76,98.85,98.93,99.0,99.07,99.13,99.19,99.24,99.29,99.34,99.38,99.42,99.45,99.48,99.51,99.54,99.56,99.59,99.61,99.63,99.65,99.67,99.68,99.7,99.72,99.73,99.74,99.75,99.76,99.77],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x4","yaxis":"y4"},{"hovertemplate":"H = %{x} s: %{y:.1f}%<extra>Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi</extra>","legendgroup":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","legendrank":1000,"line":{"color":"#2f6fd6","width":2},"marker":{"size":4},"mode":"lines+markers","name":"Polymarket \u2192 Kalshi","showlegend":false,"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60],"y":[80.22,90.27,94.19,96.24,97.42,98.17,98.65,98.98,99.22,99.37,99.5,99.61,99.68,99.73,99.77,99.81,99.84,99.86,99.88,99.9,99.91,99.92,99.93,99.94,99.95,99.96,99.96,99.96,99.97,99.97,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.98,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,99.99,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0],"type":"scatter","xaxis":"x4","yaxis":"y4"}],"layout":{"xaxis":{"anchor":"y","domain":[0.0,0.22],"title":{"text":"Forward horizon H (s)"},"range":[0,60]},"yaxis":{"anchor":"x","domain":[0.0,1.0],"range":[0,100],"title":{"text":"% with a strictly later print on the other venue"}},"xaxis2":{"anchor":"y2","domain":[0.26,0.48],"title":{"text":"Forward horizon H (s)"},"range":[0,60]},"yaxis2":{"anchor":"x2","domain":[0.0,1.0],"matches":"y","showticklabels":false,"range":[0,100]},"xaxis3":{"anchor":"y3","domain":[0.52,0.74],"title":{"text":"Forward horizon H (s)"},"range":[0,60]},"yaxis3":{"anchor":"x3","domain":[0.0,1.0],"matches":"y","showticklabels":false,"range":[0,100]},"xaxis4":{"anchor":"y4","domain":[0.78,1.0],"title":{"text":"Forward horizon H (s)"},"range":[0,60]},"yaxis4":{"anchor":"x4","domain":[0.0,1.0],"matches":"y","showticklabels":false,"range":[0,100]},"annotations":[{"font":{"size":12},"showarrow":false,"text":"Premier League 2025/26<br>In play \u00b7 F = 60 s","x":0.11,"xanchor":"center","xref":"paper","y":1.0,"yanchor":"bottom","yref":"paper"},{"font":{"size":12},"showarrow":false,"text":"Champions League 2025/26<br>In play \u00b7 F = 60 s","x":0.37,"xanchor":"center","xref":"paper","y":1.0,"yanchor":"bottom","yref":"paper"},{"font":{"size":12},"showarrow":false,"text":"World Cup 2026<br>In play \u00b7 F = 5 s","x":0.63,"xanchor":"center","xref":"paper","y":1.0,"yanchor":"bottom","yref":"paper"},{"font":{"size":12},"showarrow":false,"text":"World Cup 2026<br>Last pregame hour \u00b7 F = 10 s","x":0.89,"xanchor":"center","xref":"paper","y":1.0,"yanchor":"bottom","yref":"paper"}],"margin":{"l":72,"r":24,"t":118,"b":64},"font":{"family":"\"Source Sans 3\", \"Segoe UI\", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif","size":12},"legend":{"title":{"text":""},"font":{"size":12},"orientation":"h","x":0,"xanchor":"left","y":1.238532110091743,"yanchor":"bottom"},"height":400,"hovermode":"closest","bargap":0.25}}