Notes & studies

Research Blog

  1. Building the maker/maker trading system (architecture of the real-money test that follows the series)
  2. Starting small (Kalshi vs Polymarket in soccer 1X2 markets, part 4 of 4)
  3. Resting on both venues (Kalshi vs Polymarket in soccer 1X2 markets, part 3 of 4)
  4. What survives fees (Kalshi vs Polymarket in soccer 1X2 markets, part 2 of 4)
  5. Two tapes, one fixture (Kalshi vs Polymarket in soccer 1X2 markets, part 1 of 4)
  6. The price gap between Kalshi and Polymarket in soccer 1X2 markets (archived: single-article version, split and revised into the series above)
  7. Soccer 1X2 Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket: Trade Counts, Volume, and Timing (Hashnode)
  8. Soccer 1X2 Exploratory Research Dashboard (Interactive dashboard)
  9. Soccer Prediction Markets: Cross-Venue Pricing, Goal Jumps, and the Latency Problem (Hashnode)
  10. Globally Calibrated, Locally Mispriced? — Polymarket Soccer 1X2 (Dune · Interactive dashboard)