The price gap between Kalshi and Polymarket in soccer 1X2 markets
Last-trade comparisons across 1,973 matched fixtures: how fresh the two tapes are, how far apart they print, what survives fees, and which direction is left.
My previous post measured how much trading takes place in soccer 1X2 markets on Kalshi and Polymarket: counts, volume and timing, without looking at prices. This post looks at the prices. Using the same matched regular-time markets (home win, draw, away win), it asks how far apart the two venues’ latest trades sit, which side of each market produced those trades, whether the difference is larger than the fees, and for how much of the match clock such a difference is standing.
The unit throughout is the trade reference. On each venue, fills within the same second on the same outcome and the same taker side are combined into one volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and treated as a single print. That print is carried forward until the venue prints again. Nothing here uses order books, quotes, depth, queue positions or my own fills: a gap between two references is something that happened on the tape, not a price that could have been hit. Every result below should be read with that constraint.
Charts follow the layout of the underlying notebook: one column per market group studied (defined in section 2) and, where the split matters, one row per outcome selection. Hover for exact values; each chart links to its data.
Summary
Crossing both venues does not pay after fees. Taking liquidity on both legs (taker/taker) is positive on 3.64% of Premier League in-play observations in the better direction, 0.8% in the World Cup in play, and effectively never in the World Cup’s last pregame hour (0%); the mean net result is about −3.22 c per contract pair. Two taker fees at a 50 c price cost 3.00 c, while the mean absolute gap between the venues is 1.28 c in the Premier League and 0.69 c in the World Cup. Routes with one taker leg are positive on between 1.8% and 26.9% of observations depending on group, direction and outcome. Cross-venue taking on last-trade prices is not a strategy in these markets.
The only route that is usually positive is resting on both venues. With a passive leg on each venue (maker/maker), the two resting-side references overlap after fees on 69.7%–80.2% of Premier League in-play observations and 62.6%–86.0% in the World Cup’s last hour, with a mean net edge of 0.92–1.17 c in the Premier League and about 0.63 c in the World Cup in play. What this route reads is the cross-venue bid–ask spread: one venue’s bid-side print against the other venue’s ask-side print. It has the shape of a cross-venue market-making position, not an arbitrage: both resting orders have to fill, and the tape does not say how often they would.
Which venue should hold YES depends on the outcome. For home and away wins, holding YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi is the better direction (maker/maker positive on 81.3% versus 68.2% of Premier League observations). Polymarket prints lower than Kalshi overall (pooled gap −0.44 c; Kalshi’s flow is buy-heavy and prints at the ask): for Premier League team wins, Polymarket’s bid-side print averages −1.51 c against Kalshi’s ask side, while its ask-side print averages only +1.10 c against Kalshi’s bid side. The wider of those two cross-venue spreads is the one a resting Polymarket YES bid and a resting Kalshi NO bid capture. For draws the order flips: holding YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket is positive more often (76.5% versus 75.4% in the Premier League, 82.3% versus 74.3% in the Champions League, 82.0% versus 67.3% in the World Cup), because on draws Polymarket prints higher relative to Kalshi: its ask-side print averages +1.71 c against Kalshi’s bid side in the Premier League and +1.95 c in the Champions League, against +1.10 c and +1.17 c for team wins.
The draw is where the venues disagree most in both directions. Draw references sit at least 1 c above Kalshi on 18.7% of Premier League prints, against 13.5% for team wins. It is also where a one-taker route reaches its highest positive share: hitting Polymarket’s bid while resting on Kalshi (taker/maker, K YES + PM NO) is positive on 25.3% of Premier League draw observations and 26.9% in the Champions League, against 19.7% for Premier League team wins. If a cross-venue strategy has a first candidate, it is the draw.
Freshness sets the population, not the answer. Club fixtures need a 60-second freshness cutoff to keep 78.3% (Premier League) and 69.7% (Champions League) of the in-play clock comparable; the World Cup supports 5 seconds in play and 10 seconds in the last pregame hour. Yet the positive share of every route is nearly flat in the cutoff: maker/maker in the Premier League is 73.8% at F = 1 s and 76.9% at F = 300 s. What the cutoff changes is how much of the clock is in scope, and it is the sell-side leg that goes stale: the exact taker-side pairs that a route reads are fresh on only 44.9%–68.7% of the Premier League in-play clock at 60 s, against 78.3% pooled.
The other venue reacts within seconds, unless it was already quiet. After a Kalshi trade second in the Premier League in play, Polymarket prints again within 5 s in 47.6% of cases, within 10 s in 64.7% and within 60 s in 93.6%. The reverse direction is faster (69.4% within 5 s), and the World Cup is near-instant (87.9% and 99.0% within 5 s). If the destination venue was already stale at the trigger, the 60-second rate drops to 61.8% (Premier League, Kalshi → Polymarket) and 36.0% (Champions League, Polymarket → Kalshi). For hedge timing, these are the relevant numbers.
The resting-side overlap is standing for a large share of the clock and is spread across fixtures. A positive maker/maker reference stands for 42.1% of the Premier League in-play clock, 37.6% in the Champions League and 40.7% in the World Cup in play, at 1,677 (Premier League) to 7,571 (World Cup) positive observations per fixture-hour. Every fixture contributes, and the ten busiest fixtures hold 9.8%–22.0% of the total.
Mid-priced legs pay the most fees and screen worst. Both venues charge a fee curve that peaks at 50 c. For the direction holding YES on Kalshi, the maker/maker positive share in the Premier League falls from 82.9% below 10 c to 62.5% at 30–70 c and 57.3% at 70–90 c; the direction holding YES on Polymarket stays at 82.6% or above in every bucket.
What none of this measures: fill probability, queue position, adverse selection on the resting leg, and where the price goes after the observation. Those are the subject of the next study.
Data and definitions
The sample contains 1,973 fixtures across 10 competition-season groups, with scheduled kickoffs from September 12, 2025 to August 11, 2026. Each fixture has a Polymarket and a Kalshi regular-time 1X2 market linked to the same API-Football fixture. The previous trade-count post used an earlier 1,942-fixture snapshot.
The time reference is scheduled kickoff, including for the in-play windows: elapsed wall-clock minutes, halftime included, not the match clock. “In play” means 0–105 minutes after scheduled kickoff; the 55-minute split used in one diagnostic is a clock split, not an observed halftime.
| Term | Meaning here |
|---|---|
| Print (trade reference) | Fills within one second on one venue, outcome and taker side, combined into a volume-weighted average price and carried forward until the next print. The pooled leg merges both taker sides. |
| Fresh pair | Both venues’ latest prints are at most F seconds old; a pair’s age is the age of its older print. F looks backward. |
| Observation | A print on either leg while the other leg is fresh. Per-print statistics weight each observation equally (the taker’s view); per-second statistics weight it by how long the pair then stays fresh (the resting maker’s view). |
| Forward horizon H | Whether the other venue prints strictly later and within H seconds of a trade. H looks forward; F and H are independent. |
| Signed gap | Polymarket price minus Kalshi price, in cents per $1 contract. Negative means the Polymarket reference is lower. |
| Route | A direction (which venue holds YES: PM YES + K NO or K YES + PM NO) and a role for each leg: taker crosses, maker rests. Route names give the Polymarket role first, then the Kalshi role. |
| Team win | Home and away priced separately, then pooled for reporting. It is not a combined contract. |
1. Where the trading is
Trades per fixture is the number to keep in mind for everything that follows. The World Cup traded about 18× the Premier League and 67× Ligue 1 per fixture, and Kalshi printed 1.7× as many trades as Polymarket per Premier League fixture and 4.5× per World Cup fixture. A single freshness cutoff therefore keeps a very different share of each group’s clock, which is why the next section selects groups before comparing prices.
2. Is there a fresh pair to compare?
Availability is measured over the entire clock of every fixture, outcome and window, including the seconds in which nothing traded. A venue is fresh when its latest print is at most F seconds old.
2.2 Where the rest of the clock goes
At any instant, a market is in one of four states: both venues fresh, only Kalshi fresh, only Polymarket fresh, or neither. “Neither fresh” means neither venue traded in the preceding F seconds; it does not mean data are missing.
At F = 60 s, the Premier League in-play clock splits into 78.3% both fresh, 15.7% only Kalshi fresh, 2.63% only Polymarket fresh and 3.38% neither; the Champions League into 69.7%, 18.7%, 4.43% and 7.2%. At F = 5 s, both venues are fresh for 83.2% of the World Cup in-play clock but only 18.9% of the Premier League’s. The excluded clock is mostly one-sided: Kalshi has printed recently and Polymarket has not.
2.3 Groups entering the price study
A competition-season × window qualifies when both venues are fresh for at least 70% of its clock at F = 60 s (coverage rounded to a whole percent, which is how the Champions League qualifies at 69.7%). Each qualifying group then uses the smallest cutoff among 5, 10 and 60 s that reaches 70%. Four groups qualify:
| Competition | Window | Both fresh at F = 5 s | F = 10 s | F = 60 s | F used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League 2025/26 | In play (0–105 min) | 18.9% | 34.0% | 78.3% | 60 s |
| Champions League 2025/26 | In play (0–105 min) | 18.9% | 31.1% | 69.7% | 60 s |
| World Cup 2026 | In play (0–105 min) | 83.2% | 93.2% | 99.1% | 5 s |
| World Cup 2026 | Last hour before kickoff | 67.9% | 85.1% | 99.6% | 10 s |
This is a scope rule for the fresh-pair comparisons, not a ranking of profitability. Groups that do not qualify simply have too little time with both venues recently active for a same-time price comparison; an asynchronous strategy in those groups is a different question.
2.4 Which leg goes stale
The four states above pool both taker sides of each venue. A route reads one side per venue: PM YES + K NO executed by two takers reads the Polymarket buy-side print and the Kalshi sell-side print. Here each leg is a single taker side, and a leg is fresh only when that side printed within F seconds.
Per taker side, the picture is one-sided in a different way. In the Premier League at F = 60 s, the four pure pairs are fresh on only 44.9%–68.7% of the in-play clock, against 78.3% pooled, and the missing leg is each venue’s sell side: PM buy / K sell spends 22.0% of the clock with only Polymarket fresh, because Kalshi’s sell-side print is stale, while PM sell / K buy spends 32.9% with only Kalshi fresh. buy/buy is the best-covered pair (68.7%) and sell/sell the worst (44.9%). In the World Cup’s last pregame hour at F = 10 s the asymmetry is extreme: PM sell / K buy is 58.0% “only Kalshi fresh”. Kalshi’s buy-heavy flow, which section 4 sees from the price side, is the same fact seen from the activity side.
2.5 After a trade, how soon does the other venue trade?
This asks about trade seconds rather than the whole clock. For each source-venue trade second, does the destination venue print strictly later and within H seconds? Same-second prints do not count as a response, and a trigger is eligible only when its entire H-second future lies inside the window.
The curves are hockey sticks. After a Kalshi trade second in the Premier League in play, Polymarket prints again within 1 / 5 / 10 / 60 s in 13.8% / 47.6% / 64.7% / 93.6% of eligible cases; the Champions League behaves the same (53.6% within 5 s). The reverse direction is faster everywhere (69.4% within 5 s in the Premier League), and the World Cup in play is at 87.9% (Kalshi → Polymarket) and 99.0% (Polymarket → Kalshi) within 5 s.
When the destination venue was already stale at the trigger, the club rates fall sharply: at H = 60 s, 61.8% for Kalshi → Polymarket and 70.1% for Polymarket → Kalshi in the Premier League, 60.0% and 36.0% in the Champions League; in the World Cup the stale groups still exceed 98%. These are descriptive waiting probabilities. They do not show that the source trade causes or predicts the destination trade above its ordinary activity rate.
3. How far apart are the last trades?
An observation is a print on either venue while the other venue’s latest print is at most F seconds old, at each group’s own cutoff. The signed gap is Polymarket minus Kalshi, pooled over both taker sides; a gap of −2 c means the Polymarket reference is 2 c below Kalshi’s.
Per print weights each observation equally; per second weights it by how long the pair then stays fresh before the next print or expiry. The centre bucket holds gaps strictly between −1 and +1 c, the adjacent buckets hold the exact one-cent gaps both venues quote, and the end buckets are open at ±4 c.
For all outcomes pooled, the Premier League in-play sample has a 1.28 c mean absolute gap with 20.8% of fresh prints at least 2 c apart; the Champions League 1.43 c and 20.6%; the World Cup in play 0.69 c and 4.57%; the World Cup’s last hour 0.57 c and 4.16%. These use different cutoffs (60, 60, 5 and 10 s), so they mix activity and freshness effects.
The gap is not symmetric. In the Premier League, Polymarket prints at least 1 c below Kalshi on 41.3% of observations and at least 1 c above on 14.6%, a pooled mean of −0.44 c. The draw is more two-sided than team wins: Polymarket is at least 1 c above on 18.7% of draw prints against 13.5% of team-win prints, and at least 1 c below on 36.0% against 42.8%.
4. The trading side behind each gap
Two pooled last trades do not describe prices anyone could trade at. A taker buy and a taker sell hit different sides of the market, so the sign of a gap between a Polymarket buy-side print and a Kalshi sell-side print means something different from the sign between two buy-side prints. For the four pure taker-action pairs, the signed gap is the pre-fee gross edge of one route in each direction, 1 − p_YES − p_NO with the legs that route reads. A taker leg is priced from the print on the side it would hit; a resting leg from the print on the side that would fill it:
| Pair (PM action / Kalshi action) | Reads | PM − K < 0 is the gross edge of | PM − K > 0 is the gross edge of |
|---|---|---|---|
| buy / sell | PM ask-side vs Kalshi bid-side print | taker/taker, PM YES + K NO (edge = −gap) |
maker/maker, K YES + PM NO (edge = +gap): the cross-venue spread |
| sell / buy | PM bid-side vs Kalshi ask-side print | maker/maker, PM YES + K NO (edge = −gap): the cross-venue spread |
taker/taker, K YES + PM NO (edge = +gap) |
| buy / buy | both ask-side | taker/maker, PM YES + K NO (−gap) |
maker/taker, K YES + PM NO (+gap) |
| sell / sell | both bid-side | maker/taker, PM YES + K NO (−gap) |
taker/maker, K YES + PM NO (+gap) |
Each square shows the mean signed gap, the share of prints at least 2 c below and above zero, and the print count; blue means Polymarket printed lower, red higher.
The cross-side pairs are read by both two-taker and two-maker routes, with opposite signs. Their usual state is the ordinary cross-venue spread: for Premier League team wins, sell/buy averages −1.51 c and buy/sell +1.10 c, so a bid-side print on one venue sits 1–1.5 c below an ask-side print on the other. That is why the maker/maker route of section 5 is positive most of the time, and why the taker/taker route almost never is: it needs the same pair to cross zero, which happens on a few percent of prints. The asymmetry between the two numbers is the direction result: Polymarket’s bid side sits further below Kalshi’s ask side than Polymarket’s ask side sits above Kalshi’s bid side, so resting YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi reads the wider spread. For draws the wider spread is the other one (sell/buy −1.41 c, buy/sell +1.71 c in the Premier League; −1.21 c and +1.95 c in the Champions League), which is why the better direction flips on draws. Pooled over both sides, Polymarket prints lower than Kalshi (−0.44 c in the Premier League, −0.21 c in the World Cup in play): Kalshi’s flow is buy-heavy and prints at the ask, the same fact section 2.4 saw as Kalshi’s stale sell side.
The same-side pairs are read by the one-maker routes. They are small (buy/buy −0.36 c and sell/sell −0.06 c for Premier League team wins, sell/sell +0.34 c for draws), which is why those routes rarely clear a taker fee.
Home and away are not separated because their pooled gaps agree to within 0.2 c in every group; the cross-venue mechanics are symmetric between them.
5. What survives fees
At every route-leg print with the other leg fresh, both legs are priced from their latest prints and the fee model below is subtracted. The reference net edge is 1 − PM cost − Kalshi cost − fees.
Neither venue charges a flat fee. Both charge rate × p × (1 − p) per contract, largest at 50 c and zero at the extremes, where p is the price of the leg being bought (a NO leg pays on 1 − p; the curve is symmetric). Rates are the venues’ published schedules, not historical billing, and no rebates are assumed:
| Leg | Rate | Rounding | At p = 50 c |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket taker | 5% | none | 1.25 c per contract |
| Polymarket maker | 0 | — | 0 |
| Kalshi taker | 7% | rounded up to the cent on a 100-contract lot, plus the cent rounding of the lot’s cash cost | 1.75 c per contract |
| Kalshi maker | 1.75% | same | 0.44 c per contract |
Fee per contract in cents at several prices (100-contract lots):
| PM taker | PM maker | Kalshi taker | Kalshi maker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract price | ||||
| 5 c | 0.24 | 0.0 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| 10 c | 0.45 | 0.0 | 0.63 | 0.16 |
| 30 c | 1.05 | 0.0 | 1.47 | 0.37 |
| 50 c | 1.25 | 0.0 | 1.75 | 0.44 |
| 70 c | 1.05 | 0.0 | 1.47 | 0.37 |
| 90 c | 0.45 | 0.0 | 0.63 | 0.16 |
| 95 c | 0.24 | 0.0 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
For a maker/maker position the Polymarket leg is priced from the Polymarket taker-sell print (the reference for a resting YES bid) and the Kalshi NO leg from one minus the Kalshi taker-buy print; the opposite direction reverses the sides.
Bars show the share of fresh observations whose fee-adjusted reference edge is above zero. The remainder, 100% minus the bar, is at or below zero: for the three routes with a taker leg, that is the large majority of observations in every group. Taker/taker is positive on 3.64% of Premier League in-play observations for PM YES + K NO and 1.7% for K YES + PM NO, with a mean net result of −3.22 c; in the World Cup in play, 0.8% and −2.77 c. After the fee curve, a two-taker trade on last-trade prices loses money on almost every observation.
Maker/maker is the only route positive on more than half of its observations, at 80.2% (PM YES + K NO) and 69.7% (K YES + PM NO) in the Premier League, 80.2% and 73.6% in the Champions League, 77.0% and 72.3% in the World Cup in play, and 86.0% and 62.6% in its last pregame hour. Within that route, PM YES + K NO is the better direction for all outcomes pooled and for team wins (81.3% versus 68.2% in the Premier League), and K YES + PM NO is the better direction for draws in every group (76.5% versus 75.4% in the Premier League). The draw row also holds the highest one-taker positive share: taker/maker K YES + PM NO at 25.3% (Premier League) and 26.9% (Champions League), against 19.7% for Premier League team wins.
A maker/maker positive is easy to overread. It uses two passive-fill price references and assumes both resting legs fill at those prices. The screen does not measure joint fill probability, queue position, or the exposure while only one leg is filled. Sections 6 to 8 follow this route alone.
6. Resting on both venues: direction and freshness
Because F is swept here, each column is a competition × window and the selected cutoff plays no role. Each direction of maker/maker reads one pure taker-action pair of section 2.4: PM YES + K NO prices Polymarket’s resting YES bid from the Polymarket sell print and Kalshi’s resting NO bid from the Kalshi buy print (PM sell / K buy); K YES + PM NO reads PM buy / K sell; pooled sums both directions and uses the venue-level pair for the clock states.
The six rows share the freshness axis:
- Clock states (rows 1–3): the four states of section 2.2 for the pair each direction reads, at F = 5, 10, …, 60 s. In the Premier League,
PM YES + K NOhas both legs fresh on 58.6% of the in-play clock at 60 s andK YES + PM NOon 49.6%; at 10 s the first direction is at 18.9%. - Positive rate (row 4): the share of fresh observations with a positive fee-adjusted reference, the taker’s view. It is flat in F, and the direction order is stable within each group:
PM YES + K NOaboveK YES + PM NOin the club groups and in the World Cup in play, and by a wide margin in the World Cup’s last hour (86.0% versus 62.6% at 10 s). - Positive standing (row 5): seconds in which a fresh, positive maker/maker reference stands, as a share of the outcome clock. This is the maker’s view, the product of “both legs fresh” and “positive given fresh”. It rises with F because the first factor does: in the Premier League,
PM YES + K NOstands positive for 15.1% of the clock at 10 s and 47.6% at 60 s; in the World Cup in play, 42.0% already at 5 s and 73.7% at 60 s. - Mean net edge (row 6): cents after fees per fresh print (solid) and per fresh second (dashed). Club groups sit around 1 c and the World Cup around 0.6 c in play; the per-second line is slightly higher, meaning positive references last a little longer than negative ones.
A positive edge here says that the two venues’ resting-side prints overlapped after fees. It says nothing about whether either resting order would have filled, and a resting order that fills is the one on the wrong side of the next move more often than not. That adverse selection is unmeasured here.
7. Price level
The maker/maker positive share by the YES reference price on the venue holding YES, at each group’s selected F, outcomes pooled. Each rate is positives divided by all observations in that bucket, not the share of positives contributed by the bucket.
The fee curve peaks at 50 c, so mid-priced legs pay the most and screen worst. For K YES + PM NO in the Premier League, the positive share is 82.9% below 10 c, 62.5% at 30–70 c and 57.3% at 70–90 c; the World Cup in play shows the same dip (63.9% and 65.0%). PM YES + K NO is steadier, at 82.6% in the 30–70 c bucket and 86.9% at 70–90 c in the Premier League, with one exception: in the World Cup’s last pregame hour its positive share drops to 45.9% for legs priced at 90 c or more.
8. How often, and for how long
The frequency of maker/maker positives per group at its selected F: positive observations per fixture-hour (fixtures × window length as the denominator), their distribution across fixtures, and the time-weighted share of the clock during which a fresh, positive reference is standing. The whole-clock share uses six clocks per fixture (three outcomes × two directions); the fresh-clock share counts only seconds with a fresh pair.
| Group | Fixtures | Fresh observations | Positive per fixture-hour | Positives per fixture (median) | Positives per fixture (90th pct) | Top-10 fixtures share | Standing: % of fresh clock | Standing: % of whole clock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League 2025/26 · in play · F = 60 s | 339 | 1,299,032 | 1,677 | 2,298 | 6,051 | 9.8% | 77.8% | 42.1% |
| Champions League 2025/26 · in play · F = 60 s | 189 | 768,173 | 1,808 | 1,616 | 8,631 | 22.0% | 79.0% | 37.6% |
| World Cup 2026 · in play · F = 5 s | 104 | 1,838,197 | 7,571 | 13,366 | 18,393 | 14.7% | 75.0% | 40.7% |
| World Cup 2026 · last pregame hour · F = 10 s | 104 | 594,744 | 4,462 | 4,284 | 6,949 | 17.3% | 75.8% | 30.9% |
Positives are frequent and spread out rather than concentrated: every fixture in every group shows at least one, and the ten busiest fixtures account for 9.8%–22.0% of the total. A positive resting-side overlap stands for 42.1% of the Premier League in-play clock, 37.6% in the Champions League, 40.7% in the World Cup in play and 30.9% in its last pregame hour. Several observations can belong to one continuing overlap, so these are not counts of independent trades.
What is not measured
Everything above is a description of the trade tape. It establishes where the two venues print differently, on which side, by how much relative to fees, and for how long. It does not establish that any of it could be captured:
- There are no historical order books, so available size and queue position at the reference prices are unknown.
- A maker/maker positive assumes both passive legs fill. The tape does not give the joint fill probability, and the resting leg that fills is exposed to the next move.
- The price after each observation is not examined here. Whether a gap persists, closes toward one venue, or reverses is a separate measurement, as are markouts on the resting leg.
- Fees are the venues’ current published schedules applied to historical trades; no rebates or tier discounts are assumed.
- No confidence intervals or fixture-clustered uncertainty are supplied. Comparisons are descriptive for this sample.
The next study takes the same observations forward in event time: how long a positive reference stands before a print removes it, what the other venue does next, and what a resting leg would have earned or lost against the subsequent prints.
Data, methods and updates
This is a dated static snapshot. The page contains 11 interactive charts, each with its plotted aggregates downloadable as CSV and Plotly JSON, and a snapshot manifest with source hashes and the fixture date range. The source notebook is available without outputs; it requires the local research modules and curated inputs, so on its own it does not recreate the pipeline. The publication notes describe the build.
Method notes:
- Both venues’ regular-time home/draw/away markets are linked to common API-Football fixtures. Market linkage is distinct from actual trading coverage.
- Availability is weighted by fixture × outcome × window seconds, including silence; intervals are split at window boundaries. Prints before the analysis window are unavailable, so initial freshness refers to the observed window.
- Gap observations occur when either leg prints and the other is fresh. Time weights use the duration until the next print, capped by the remaining freshness allowance.
- Group selection uses whole-percent coverage at F = 60 s and the smallest of 5, 10 and 60 s that reaches 70%.
- Trade waiting uses strictly later destination prints with forward-window boundary censoring (about 2% of triggers); rates are pooled over trade seconds, not averaged across fixtures.
- Fee scenarios are frozen analysis inputs. Kalshi fees are computed on 100-contract lots with the venue’s rounding.